Bias and In uence : Evidence from Newspaper Endorsements

This paper investigates the relationship between media bias and the in uence of the media on voting in the context of newspaper endorsements. We rst develop a simple econometric model in which voters choose candidates under uncertainty and rely on endorsements from better informed sources. Newspapers are potentially biased in favor of one of the candidates and voters thus rationally account for the credibility of any endorsements. Our primary empirical nding is that endorsements are in uential in the sense that voters are more likely to support the recommended candidate after publication of the endorsement. The degree of this in uence, however, depends upon the credibility of the endorsement. In this way, endorsements for the Democratic candidate from left-leaning newspapers are less in uential than are endorsements from neutral or right-leaning or newspapers and likewise for endorsements for the Republican. We also nd that endorsements are more in uential among moderate voters, those more likely to be exposed to the endorsement, and those who rely less on television for news. In sum, these ndings suggest that voters do rely on the media for information during campaigns but that the extent of this reliance depends upon the degree and direction of any bias. Chun Fang Chiang Department of Economics National Taiwan University Taipei, Taiwan 10055 Brian Knight Department of Economics Brown University Providence RI 02912 We thank two anonymous referees, Pedro Dal Bo, Andrew Foster, Glenn Loury, Jesse Shapiro, Ethan Kaplan, and Fernanda Leite Lopez de Leon for helpful comments. We also thank participants the 2008 PIER Political Economy Conference and participants at numerous university seminars. We also thank Chisoo Kim for providing data on newspaper ownership and historical endorsements.